No Deal Brexiters.

[birdbath]

Astonishingly, there seems to be a considerable percentage among leavers who support a no deal option despite warnings from many quarters of the dire economic consequences.
I wonder if any on this forum who support a no deal outcome would like to shed some light on their thinking.

[steve]

NO DEAL is better than May's deal IMO

Too much scaremongering, EU are not going to stop shipping us cars, wine, cheese etc.

Firstly there would be a transition period with no additional custom checks.

Theresa May has taken over two years to come up with a pathetic deal, and this is only the withdrawal deal, plus the £39bn divorce deal, and not started any trade talks. Any plc would have sacked her a long time ago.

[Alikado]

NO DEAL is better than May's deal IMO

Too much scaremongering, EU are not going to stop shipping us cars, wine, cheese etc.

Firstly there would be a transition period with no additional custom checks.

Theresa May has taken over two years to come up with a pathetic deal, and this is only the withdrawal deal, plus the £39bn divorce deal, and not started any trade talks. Any plc would have sacked her a long time ago.

No they will still ship us cheese, wine and cars and it will be upto us if we charge tariffs but you can bet your bottom dollar that they will impose them on the ones built here.

[Lamparilla]

Nonsense.
Hardly any countries trade solely on WTO terms because they only provide a bare minimum baseline for trade. That's why countries join trading blocs like the EU.
"No deal" would be a national disaster.

Yes - tariffs are only a small part of it. You also need MRAs in place (Mutual Recognition Agreements). This is why it took Canada 7 years to negotiate a deal with the EU.

If the UK went down the WTO route, it would still have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU that could take years. As soon as we leave, all our technical standards won't be recognised by EU countries and we'd have to start again. To quote from the link below:

"There are, in fact, 82 agreements between the EU and Australia, of which 18 are bilateral. There are 65 between the EU and China, of which 13 are bilateral. Between the EU and the United States, there are 135, of which 55 are bilateral."

So, even if we offered zero tariffs, this would only apply to imports - what about exports? Would we just accept any old cheap tat without it being checked? We'd have to negotiate MRAs with all the major players, which we get automatically as members of the EU.

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

[Rigsby]

Theresa May has taken over two years to come up with a pathetic deal, and this is only the withdrawal deal, plus the £39bn divorce deal, and not started any trade talks. Any plc would have sacked her a long time ago.

I’m no fan or supporter of Theresa May, but in her defence it was always an impossible task.

How can anyone negotiate to leave a “club” whose other members don’t want to loose one of their largest financial contributors, and say no to everything.

I think even Henry Kissinger would have come away empty handed.

[Hamble]

I’m no fan or supporter of Theresa May, but in her defence it was always an impossible task.

How can anyone negotiate to leave a “club” whose other members don’t want to loose one of their largest financial contributors, and say no to everything.

I think even Henry Kissinger would have come away empty handed.

Agree.

We are where we are through all the hurdles.
The option of no deal has to stay to deliver Brexit.

[ausard2]

Please, we will leave with or without the deal.
Nice if we can find a compromise ,but we will leave
and there after others will follow. The EU is the ideology of probably 200 people who would like lead and control to what they think is the way forward. Please as the pleb in the street , we did. I have no issues with anybody in the EU .They are normal
family people being led by the few.

[salus.populi]

I know we don't listen to experts but this from an expert might be worth reading:

"

ebunking WTO, and what "trading on WTO terms" really means...As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA, and 40+ other countries. Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety, environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. The treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50 process works.) Even *if* we have a transition period the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition arrangement.Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little smoother than it otherwise would be. WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's definitely a step up from a kickaround in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO. Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of 10%.Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then pass those extra costs onto the consumer.Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers.But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10% tariffs.WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO "most favoured nation" rule kicks in."Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever, because what it really means is that *we* are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages.But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest producers on the planet.That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands. Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in the global market. For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?Short answer: they won't. But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs.However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The idea is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to.So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to offset the tariffs; most will collapse.And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs.If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements.We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:
A) Don't understand what that means
or
B) Are lying to youFor example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit.In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how damaging, trading on WTO terms would be.Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse than the 2008 financial crash.But unlike the crash, we'd be willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves.And the ultimate end result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years, but for decades or generations to come.WTO: just say no!"

[steve]

The Dutch PM had quite a good summary today of UK. Another day of farce in Parliament today which probably doesn’t change a thing

[said]

No deal is the best option - if the EU does not like it they will have to offer huge incentives to better it.

British government officials repeatedly tried to reform the EU when EU policies were detrimental to the UK - every time, they were ignored. That is when D. Cameron became totally frustrated and agreed to the referendum.

"The EU's policies on borders are completely crazy to say the least. Take Croatia for instance, Croatia is not in the Schengen zone. There are houses and farms that are partly in the EU and part not. The owners need to show ID's to get to their own land across the border??"

The Eurozone is heading towards a heavy recession due to the emerging populist movement in member states, France overspending, Italy protesting, Spain's elections, and US policies in trade - this will affect the whole of the EU, including UK businesses and the Brexit negotiations.

[ausard2]

[Someone please, the writing is on the wall. We are
going back to having your own identity along with
our friends in Europe peacefully hopefu

[said]

Written I believe by Edwin Hayward, a supporter for Remain. A typical report inasmuch it is not what he has stated, but what he has omitted to state. He claims that the UK will lose out on 750 treaties, most of these are minor, archived or are by association.

The UK has always maintained its own employment and health and safety rights and food standards most of which were adopted by the EU. Although to justify their expenditure the EU has expanded on standards substantially and unnecessarily creating huge administration costs to all businesses.

The Author quotes import and export percentages - included in those percentages are a large number of goods that are channeled THROUGH the EU - on route to external countries. For many years the UK has traded outside the EU to allow UK companies to remain competitive since the EU tariffs are high.

There are 164 countries that are members of the WTO. The EU itself trades on 24 countries or regions tariffs that are WTO only. After Brexit, the UK will be allowed to choose to maintain the same tariffs with the EU as we have now, or we can choose to lower them. However if we lower the tariffs with goods to the EU, the UK must apply the same tariffs to other countries. Several of the tariffs imposed by the EU are very high to protect certain member countries industries and consumers have to pay the full high cost - but only part of this high cost is given to British producers.

The WTO came into being in 1995, borne from its predecessor, GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) which originated in 1948. The intentions are to reduce tariffs (or customs duties) to allow for fair global trading. All WTO member countries have to agree to a commitment to 'bind' or cut tariffs, in some cases, agree to a zero tariff.

Brexit - no deal! Is the best deal.

[said]

That club should not keep your property either. The EU is saying that the UK would not be involved in the European satellite set up after Brexit - even though the UK has invested a huge amount of money in it.

[said]

As explained elsewhere on this thread. UK enjoys preferential trade arrangement with a whole host of non-EU countries, thanks to our membership of the EU.....what's the problem with that?

More to the point, what do you yourself (or me, or the guy next door for that matter) personally stand to gain from life outside the EU? Will we as individuals gain amazing new rights to go live/work/buy property/get free healthcare/retire, etc in Oz, the US, Japan, Timbuktu etc - to make up for the devastating loss of EU citizenship?

No one knows what the future holds but the expectation is for greater marketing competition as we will not be tied to the same rules, more pride in our output since employees will be working for the UK, more private enterprise as confidence grows, leading to more jobs, higher standards, less business pressures and costs, etc., etc., Devastating loss?? You have to be kidding! There is unrest in every one of the EU member countries, the EU is yesterdays Dodo.

[seivad]

After Brexit, the UK will be allowed to choose to maintain the same tariffs with the EU as we have now, or we can choose to lower them.

I'm confused. You don't pay tariffs on imports from the EU now. And they don't apply tariffs on your exports.

However if we lower the tariffs with goods to the EU, the UK must apply the same tariffs to other countries.

I'm confused here also. You say "if we lower tariffs with goods to the EU"... which must mean your exports. You cannot lower tariffs on your exports. The EU sets tariff rates on their imports, which, in their case, is the Common Customs Tariff at the WTO. If you trade with the EU on WTO terms, the Common Customs Tariff is the rate that will apply to British exports into the EU.

You also say "However if we lower the tariffs with goods to the EU, the UK must apply the same tariffs to other countries."

Again you say "to" the EU. If you're trading on WTO terms, applying the same rate to other countries only applies to tariff rates on your imports.

Brexiters really need to bone up on what WTO terms are!